Saturday, April 28, 2012

Welcome to 1984


Don’t let the title fool you; we’re not going back in time. The reference is, of course, to the book by George Orwell.  It was written and published in 1948, and the back-story is that Orwell was playing with titles for his work. He decided that since it was about the future of mankind he could invert the last two numbers of the present year and come up with a probable time when it would become fact instead of fiction.

Now some people believe that Orwell hit the nail on the head and got the right year, but others, like myself, who liked what Ronald Reagan accomplished while president are not so sure.

There was one aspect of the novel, Nineteen Eighty-Four, which has really blossomed in recent months and years.  It was Orwell’s fictional language, the new way of speaking called, “Newspeak.”  He even included an essay in the book to explain how the language was constructed to eliminate certain words and augment and glorify others. One of the aims of Newspeak was to put a positive spin on any news that would otherwise reflect negatively on the regime.

In regards to Newspeak in our present world, there are several economic reports that are released weekly.  These show the current status of the American economy as to consumer sentiment, unemployment, business activity and inventory and other measurements to show the current weekly activity of our economy. 

Lately the reports have been made to look positive even when they are negative. You may ask, “How is that done?”  Well, if a number goes up, it usually is a positive sign, but if that number is a measurement of a negative trend, like the price of a barrel of oil, then a positive number is bad news. If you report that negative trend in words that are thought of as positive, then it can be made to look good instead of bad.

An example of the above is the weekly Unemployment Report that measures new claims for unemployment insurance payments for recently laid off workers.  The number has been increasing slightly every week for about a month.  That isn’t good, but when the prior week’s numbers are revised upward as they have been repeatedly, the new total appears to be lower.

On April 19, 2012, the unemployment claims for the past week were announced. The number was 386,000 new claims for jobless benefits, a decrease of 2,000 from the adjusted number from the prior week of 388,000.  However, the reported number of that previous week, 'unadjusted', was 380,000, so instead of a decrease of 2,000, the number actually went up by 6,000.

Hint: If you research the numbers for past weeks you will find that in every instance the number from the previous week is ‘adjusted’ just enough to make this week’s number a decrease.  That is, it as always adjusted upward from the prior week’s ‘reported’ number. That enables the reporters to proclaim that the economy is improving, even when the new number is ‘unexpectedly higher’ than was predicted, another catchphrase that has found its way into the economic jargon.

I can’t resist the opportunity to input the Jobless Claims numbers for the week of April 26th as another example of the ‘apples to oranges’ comparisons detailed above.  The number of new claims was ‘reported’ as 388,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the ‘adjusted’ number from April 19th of 389,00. The ‘reported’ number for both dates would yield a 2,000 increase, but nobody ever goes back to examine equivalent numbers. Are you seeing how the game is played and the numbers manipulated?

Another example of putting a positive spin on a negative trend: The Consumer Confidence Index recently dropped from 71.6 to 70.2 (1.4-percent of those surveyed were less confident in the economic recovery), but the news report said that, “…consumer confidence eased.”  Now doesn’t that sound like it got better?

In case you’re a skeptic, I read the other day that the department of Homeland Security has a list of “offensive” words that might appear in e-mail messages.  They trigger some action that could put you on a terror list if you use them in your communications.  I won’t list them here—why put myself on that list—but you can probably figure out some of them.

Yes, Winston Smith is alive and well in 2012.  In case you haven’t read the book, he is the protagonist in Nineteen Eighty-Four. 



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